How much net income will ASML report in Q1 2026?
ASML Holding N.V. is a Dutch semiconductor equipment manufacturer that supplies photolithography systems essential for producing advanced microchips. The company holds a near-monopoly position in extreme ultraviolet lithography systems, which are critical for manufacturing the most advanced semiconductors (ASML).
ASML's has varied significantly in recent years. The company reported €2.4 billion in Q1 2025, €1.2 billion in Q1 2024, €2.0 billion in Q1 2023, €695 million in Q1 2022, and €1.3 billion in Q1 2021.
In October 2025, ASML management stated that the company does not expect 2026 total net sales to be below 2025 levels, despite anticipating a significant decline in China sales from the exceptionally high 2024-2025 levels (The Wolf of Harcourt Street). The company expects continued demand for EUV systems driven by artificial intelligence applications and advanced DRAM production to offset regional headwinds (CNBC). Analysts project the semiconductor industry will grow approximately 25% in 2026, reaching around $975 billion in sales (Investing.com).
Resolution Criteria:
This question will be resolved using ASML Holding N.V.'s official quarterly financial results published on ASML's investor relations website. This question will resolve based on ASML's reported net income for the first quarter of 2026 as stated in the company's Q1 2026 earnings release, which is typically published in mid-April following the end of the quarter.
Outcome
| Answer | Final crowd forecast | Resolution |
|---|---|---|
| Less than €1.2 billion | 0% | Did not happen |
| More than or equal to €1.2 billion but less than €1.8 billion | 1% | Did not happen |
| More than or equal to €1.8 billion but less than €2.4 billion | 23% | Did not happen |
| More than or equal to €2.4 billion | 76% | Happened |
“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.