What will the U.S. annual inflation rate be in July 2025?

Multiple choice Opened 23 May 2025 Closed 1 August 2025 Resolved 12 August 2025 341 forecasts 142 forecasters

The U.S. annual inflation rate for the 12 months ending April 2025 was 2.3%. By comparison, the inflation rate was 2.4% for March 2025 and 2.8% for February 2025. In prior years, the inflation rate was 2.9% for July 2024 and 3.2% for July 2023 (US Inflation Calculator).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the 12-month percentage change in Consumer Price Index (annual inflation rate) for July 2025, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Consumer Price Index for July 2025 is expected to be released on 12 August 2025.

Outcome

Answer	Final crowd forecast	Resolution
Less than 2.3%	2%	Did not happen
More than or equal to 2.3% but less than 2.6%	13%	Did not happen
More than or equal to 2.6% but less than 2.9%	69%	Happened
More than or equal to 2.9% but less than 3.2%	15%	Did not happen
More than or equal to 3.2%	1%	Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

More than or equal to 2.6% but less than 2.9% More than or equal to 2.3% but less than 2.6% More than or equal to 2.9% but less than 3.2% More than or equal to 3.2% Less than 2.3%

The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.