RAND Forecasting
Initiative
Archive
The RAND Forecasting Initiative has concluded. This is a permanent read-only archive. Accounts, forecasting, and comments are no longer available.

← All questions

How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Multiple choice Opened 2 February 2021 Closed 1 July 2021 Resolved 31 January 2022 206 forecasts 81 forecasters

Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $19.35 billion, and the correct answer was $17.4 billion. 

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is classified as a startup if the funding round in question is any of the following: pre-seed, seed, angel, series a, series b, or venture round. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. 

The graph is linked directly to data from the vendor. Values on the graph can change if the vendor updates the data in ways that impact past data points. The data underlying the graph on the date the question was published is here. If the data changes to a non-trivial extent, we will notify forecasters and add a new snapshot of the data to the spreadsheet to make it easier to view the changes. 

This question is a metric for the following scenarios:

For more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: "Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?"

To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.

Outcome

Answer Final crowd forecast Resolution
Less than $13 billion 2% Did not happen
Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive 9% Did not happen
More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion 46% Did not happen
More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion 34% Did not happen
More than $25 billion 9% Happened

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Feb 2021 Apr 2021 Jul 2021 46% 34% 9% 9% 2%
More than $25 billion More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive Less than $13 billion
The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.