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Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel by 31 December 2023?

Yes/No Opened 23 March 2023 Closed 1 January 2024 Resolved 2 January 2024 695 forecasts 99 forecasters
In 2020, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco signed agreements establishing diplomatic relations with Israel (Foreign Policy, Brookings, Al Jazeera). Current conversations suggest that others, including Saudi Arabia, may soon join them (New York Times), although anti-Israel sentiment may make that difficult (Middle East Eye).  
Examples of agreements that have established diplomatic relations include the peace treaties Israel signed with Egypt and Jordan, as well as the normalization agreements that Israel signed with the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco as part of the Abraham Accords.  
This question will resolve “Yes” if any of the following countries sign an agreement with Israel establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations: 
  • Afghanistan 
  • Algeria 
  • Bangladesh 
  • Brunei 
  • Comoros 
  • Djibouti 
  • Indonesia  
  • Iran 
  • Iraq 
  • Kuwait 
  • Lebanon 
  • Libya 
  • Malaysia 
  • Maldives 
  • Mali 
  • Niger 
  • Oman 
  • Qatar 
  • Saudi Arabia 
  • Somalia 
  • Syria 
  • Tunisia 
  • Yemen 


Note that while Sudan is also a Muslim-majority country, Israel and Sudan have agreed to a normalization deal that they are expected to sign later this year. The signing of this agreement will not count towards the resolution of this question. To forecast the likelihood that the Israel-Sudan deal is signed this year, please see this question.

Outcome

Outcome Final crowd forecast Resolution
Yes 1% Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Mar 2023 Aug 2023 Jan 2024 1% Yes
The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.