Will Chinese security or paramilitary forces take possession of any island currently under control of Taiwan before 1 April 2023?

Yes/No Opened 21 April 2022 Closed 1 April 2023 Resolved 5 April 2023 761 forecasts 149 forecasters

This question will be resolved using open-source media reporting. For the purposes of this question:

“Taking possession” would involve an invasion, conquest, and control of an island by Chinese military forces, lasting more than 24 hours. The question will resolve once control has been held for 24 consecutive hours, irrespective of how long that control is maintained after that period. Control will be determined using reputable news media reporting (e.g., Reuters, NYTimes, AP, BBC).
“Chinese security or paramilitary forces” includes both the People’s Liberation Army and any paramilitary associated with the People's Republic of China (e.g., the Maritime Militia).
"Islands considered currently under the control of Taiwan" include the island groups of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, Matsu, as well as other islands in the South China Sea. It does not include disputed islands claimed by Taiwan but not under Taiwanese control (e.g., the Senkaku Islands and some of the Spratly Islands).

Additional reading:

China has debated attacking Taiwan-controlled islands, Taiwan official says (Reuters)
The small islands that could be the first target in a clash between China, Taiwan, and the US (Business Insider)
A Far-Flung Taiwan Island Risks Triggering a U.S.-China Clash (Bloomberg)

Outcome

Outcome	Final crowd forecast	Resolution
Yes	1%	Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.