What percentage of contributions to Github's "very high impact" AI projects will be from China in 2022?

Multiple choice Opened 5 May 2022 Closed 1 January 2023 Resolved 20 April 2023 215 forecasts 42 forecasters

Question will be resolved using Github data from the OECD AI Policy Observatory’s data on AI software development. The link will take you to the “Contributions to public AI projects by country and project impact” page. Set the following parameters for the data:

AI projects impact indicator (# of forks): “Very high impact (>100 forks)”
“Percentage” checkbox: checked

See here for more information about the OECD’s methodology and the Github data. Question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and resolved when the OECD database is updated.

New to AI? Check out our blog post on AI competitiveness for a list of resources to jumpstart your research. To learn more about the OECD data and how it's used by policy makers, check out this video.

Outcome

Answer	Final crowd forecast	Resolution
Less than 22%	57%	Happened
More than or equal to 22% but less than 27%	36%	Did not happen
More than or equal to 27%	6%	Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

Less than 22% More than or equal to 22% but less than 27% More than or equal to 27%

The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.