From 1 August 2022 and 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 100 or more protest and riot-related fatalities in Brazil?

Yes/No Opened 4 August 2022 Closed 1 August 2023 Resolved 25 August 2023 603 forecasts 76 forecasters

This question will be resolved using the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) project’s dashboard. To count the number of protest and riot-related fatalities in Brazil for a given time period:

Adjust the “Event Date” filter to the relevant dates.
Select “Riots” and “Protests” from the event type filter.
Select “Brazil” from the Region filter.
Click “Apply Filters”
Change the dropdown box located on the upper right side of the line graph from “Event Count” to “Fatalities”

Additional Reading:

Brazil: killing of Lula’s party treasurer raises fears of violent run-up to election (The Guardian)
Brazilians protest Bolsonaro’s role in half a million COVID-19 deaths (Reuters)
Thousands protest the killing of a Congolese refugee in Brazil (Al Jazeera)

Outcome

Outcome	Final crowd forecast	Resolution
Yes	1%	Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.