How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?

Multiple choice Opened 22 October 2024 Closed 1 October 2025 Resolved 27 October 2025 803 forecasts 118 forecasters

EUvsDisinfo is a project of the European External Action Service’s East StratCom Task Force, with the goal of identifying and combating disinformation campaigns originating from pro-Kremlin media sources. Since its establishment in 2015, EUvsDisinfo has focused on detecting and debunking Russian disinformation campaigns targeting the EU and its member states (EUvsDisinfo). Russian influence has been particularly notable since the onset of the Ukraine conflict, and the German government has recognized these tactics as part of a broader strategy to influence public opinion and promote Russian interests (German Federal Ministry of the Interior and Community). Disinformation campaigns have intensified during electoral periods in Germany, raising concerns about their potential impact on the 2025 federal elections (DW, ISD Global).
EUvsDisinfo has recorded the following number of German-language disinformation cases from October 1st through September 30th of each of the following years:

Oct 2023 to Sept 2024: 67
Oct 2022 to Sept 2023: 14
Oct 2021 to Sept 2022: 82
Oct 2020 to Sept 2021: 78

Resolution Criteria: This question will be resolved using the EUvsDisinfo database. To find the number of disinformation cases discussing Germany that were detected in a given time frame, select “German” from the “Language” filter on the left hand side and select the relevant dates from the “Date” filter. The number of cases matching these criteria will be displayed above the list of cases.

Outcome

Answer	Final crowd forecast	Resolution
Less than or equal to 59	1%	Did not happen
Between 60 and 69, inclusive	3%	Did not happen
Between 70 and 79, inclusive	78%	Happened
Between 80 and 89, inclusive	14%	Did not happen
More than or equal to 90	4%	Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

Between 70 and 79, inclusive Between 80 and 89, inclusive Between 60 and 69, inclusive More than or equal to 90 Less than or equal to 59

The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.