How many incidents of political violence will occur in Gaza in August 2025?

Multiple choice Opened 23 May 2025 Closed 1 September 2025 Resolved 1 October 2025 386 forecasts 123 forecasters

In early May 2025, Israel’s government approved a plan to expand military operations in the Gaza Strip, potentially including taking control of the territory (Washington Post, Reuters). According to ACLED data, there were 2,289 incidents of political violence in Gaza from 1 January 2025 to 30 April 2025, encompassing battles; airstrikes; shellings and explosive attacks; violence targeting civilians; and property destruction (ACLED).
Resolution Criteria: This question will be resolved using ACLED's Gaza Monitor. To see the total number of political violence incidents in August 2025 (when available):

Navigate to ACLED's Gaza Monitor page
In the upper left-hand corner of the map, select August 1, 2025, to August 31, 2025
In the bottom right-hand corner, where it says "event totals", the question will resolve with the overall total shown there.

Outcome

Answer	Final crowd forecast	Resolution
Less than or equal to 500	1%	Did not happen
Between 501 and 750, inclusive	9%	Did not happen
Between 751 and 1000, inclusive	59%	Happened
Between 1001 and 1250, inclusive	26%	Did not happen
More than or equal to 1251	4%	Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

More than or equal to 1251 Between 751 and 1000, inclusive Between 501 and 750, inclusive Between 1001 and 1250, inclusive Less than or equal to 500

The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.