How many people will have signed up for World ID on 1 September 2023?

Multiple choice Opened 6 June 2023 Closed 1 September 2023 Resolved 1 September 2023 408 forecasts 153 forecasters

“Proof of personhood” tests have been proposed as a solution for curbing AI-powered disinformation campaigns, but these tests raise questions about users’ privacy and anonymity (Stanford Internet Observatory). World ID, a component of Worldcoin, is a blockchain-based approach to this problem that provides an anonymous way to verify humanness without sharing private information (Cointelegraph, TechCrunch). It was launched globally on May 8th by OpenAI’s CEO, Sam Altman (Worldcoin).

Resolution Criteria: Question will be resolved based on the number of signups reported by Worldcoin on 1 September 2023 at 5:00 pm EST. These numbers are updated in real-time, and at the time this question launched, World ID had 1.8 million sign ups. Historical data from the pre-release stage of the product is below:

Outcome

Answer	Final crowd forecast	Resolution
Less than 4 million	98%	Happened
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million	2%	Did not happen
More than or equal to 6 million	1%	Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

Less than 4 million More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million More than or equal to 6 million

The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.