RAND Forecasting
Initiative
Archive
The RAND Forecasting Initiative has concluded. This is a permanent read-only archive. Accounts, forecasting, and comments are no longer available.

← All questions

When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report?

Multiple choice Opened 18 August 2022 Closed 1 January 2024 Resolved 12 February 2024 745 forecasts 82 forecasters
ExxonMobil is partnering with synthetic biology firm, Viridos (formerly "Synthetic Genomics"), to scale algae-based biofuels (Bloomberg, Nasdaq).  
Question will be resolved if algae-based biofuels or a specific algae-based biofuel project is positively mentioned in ExxonMobil’s press releases for their quarterly earnings, which includes a section highlighting initiatives related to their goal of reducing carbon emission (e.g., see “Leading the Drive to Net 0: Biofuels and Hydrogen” section of the 2Q 2022 Report). A “positive mention” refers to the inclusion of an update involving, but not limited to, ExxonMobil's continued research, production, or use of algae-based biofuels. If the company mentions algae-based biofuels in the context of no longer pursuing this capability, then this question will resolve as “No”.
These press releases can be found at the bottom of ExxonMobil's quarterly earnings page. Algae-based biofuels were most recently mentioned in the 1Q 2018 Report, where ExxonMobil and Viridos (then "Synthetic Genomics") announced "a new phase in their joint algae biofuel research program that could lead to the technical ability to produce 10,000 barrels of algae biofuel per day by 2025."  
Read more about the future of biofuels on the INFER blog.
Additional Reading: 

Outcome

Answer Final crowd forecast Resolution
In 3Q 2022 or 4Q 2022 0% Did not happen
In 1Q 2023 or 2Q 2023 0% Did not happen
In 3Q 2023 or 4Q 2023 0% Did not happen
Not before 1Q 2024 100% Happened

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Aug 2022 May 2023 Jan 2024 100% 0% 0% 0%
Not before 1Q 2024 In 3Q 2022 or 4Q 2022 In 1Q 2023 or 2Q 2023 In 3Q 2023 or 4Q 2023
The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.