Will any of the following countries announce on or before 31 March 2023 that they are joining the United States’ chip export ban against China?
In October 2022, the United States announced measures aimed at controlling China’s access to advanced semiconductor chips, including export restrictions on both advanced chips and the equipment needed to manufacture them (Reuters). Since then, the United States has attempted to convince key allies, most notably Japan, Netherlands, and South Korea, to join the ban as well (Bloomberg). In January 2023, President Biden met with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte to continue discussions. This question will be resolved using an official announcement by the relevant country. Announcements which specify that a country will be following some, but not all, of the U.S. measures will resolve as "Yes".
Read more about the U.S.'s semiconductor export controls on the INFER blog.
Additional Reading:
Read more about the U.S.'s semiconductor export controls on the INFER blog.
Additional Reading:
Outcome
| Answer | Final crowd forecast | Resolution |
|---|---|---|
| Japan | 51% | Happened |
| The Netherlands | 12% | Happened |
| South Korea | 12% | Did not happen |
| Any other country not listed | 8% | Did not happen |
“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.
Crowd forecast over time
Japan
The Netherlands
South Korea
Any other country not listed