Which country will have published the second most "high impact" journal articles on artificial intelligence in 2022?

Multiple choice Opened 7 September 2022 Closed 1 January 2023 Resolved 21 April 2023 86 forecasts 31 forecasters

Question will be resolved using Elsevier (Scopus) data from the OECD’s policy observatory’s data on AI research. The link will take you to the “AI scientific publications time series by country, from Scopus” page. Set the following parameters for the data:

Quality Rankings: High Impact: FWCI > 1.5
Indicator: Publications
Publication Type: Article
Percentage: Unchecked

See here for more information about the OECD’s methodology and the Elsevier (Scopus) data. Question will be closed for forecasting on 31 December 2022 and resolved in the first week of April 2023 to account for any lags in reporting.
New to AI? Check out our blog post on AI competitiveness for a list of resources to jumpstart your research. To learn more about the OECD data and how it's used by policy makers, check out this video.

Outcome

Answer	Final crowd forecast	Resolution
China	2%	Did not happen
EU	76%	Happened
United States	20%	Did not happen
India	1%	Did not happen
None of the above	0%	Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

EU United States China India None of the above

The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.