Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023?

Yes/No Opened 3 March 2022 Closed 1 March 2023 Resolved 23 March 2023 1,512 forecasts 348 forecasters

President Vladimir Putin has dominated Russian politics since he succeeded Boris Yeltsin as president in 1999. However, Putin's decision to invade Ukraine has received broad international condemnation (Guardian). He swiftly squashed domestic criticism and protests from Russian citizens, but it is unclear how his hold on power will be affected by a prolonged war or the devastating economic and financial sanctions that have been levied against him, Russian oligarchs, and the Russian country (Al Jazeera, The New York Times)

This question will be resolved using the list of Heads of State, Heads of Government and Ministers for Foreign Affairs maintained by the UN Protocol and Liaison Service.

Outcome

Outcome	Final crowd forecast	Resolution
Yes	2%	Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.