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When will China officially recognize a winner of the U.S. presidential election?

Multiple choice Opened 11 November 2020 Closed 25 November 2020 Resolved 13 November 2020 48 forecasts 41 forecasters

Context. China has not yet recognized a winner of the U.S. presidential election. A Chinese foreign ministry spokesman stated: "We noticed that Mr. Biden has declared election victory . . . We understand that the U.S. presidential election result will be determined following U.S. law and procedures." In 2016, President Xi Jinping congratulated President Trump on November 9, one day after the election. 

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. We will consider a statement by President Xi Jingping or any other official government statement as a qualifying event.  

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Outcome

Answer Final crowd forecast Resolution
Before November 25 32% Happened
Between November 25 and December 22, inclusive 36% Did not happen
Between December 23 and January 20, inclusive 22% Did not happen
After January 20 9% Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

No aggregate forecast history is available for this question.