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Will all NATO members agree to a defense spending target of 5% of GDP by 31 July 2025?

Yes/No Opened 9 June 2025 Closed 31 July 2025 Resolved 7 August 2025 483 forecasts 163 forecasters
In 2014, NATO Heads of State and Government agreed to commit 2% of GDP for defense spending (NATO). However, in the wake of the changing security environment, including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and pressure from the Trump Administration, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte proposed a ramp up to 5% GDP spending on defense, with 3.5% dedicated to defense and equipment budgets and 1.5% on infrastructure and cybersecurity (New York Times, Reuters). In recent comments, Rutte said he “assumes” the alliance members will agree to the 5% target during the 2025 summit from 24-25 June (Reuters). 
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve “Yes” if all 32 members of NATO agree to spend 5% of GDP or more on defense by 31 July 2025. Resolution sources can include formal communiques, official government statements, or confirmed reporting of unanimous consent by major international news organizations (such as Reuters, the Associated Press, or The New York Times).For the purposes of this question:
  • Softer commitments such as "aspiring to," "working toward," or "committing to work toward" 5% defense spending will not qualify as agreement.
  • The agreement does not need to specify a timeline for reaching the 5% target.
  • If there is unanimous agreement among all members to commit to a 5% defense spending target, then the question will resolve “Yes” regardless of whether countries later walk away from the commitment.

Outcome

Answer Final crowd forecast Resolution
Yes 1% Did not happen
No 99% Happened

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Jun 2025 Jul 2025 Jul 2025 99% 1%
No Yes
The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.