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On 28 February 2023, how many states will be following the California emissions standard banning the sale of new emissions-producing vehicles by 2035?

Multiple choice Opened 8 September 2022 Closed 1 March 2023 Resolved 5 April 2023 268 forecasts 75 forecasters

In their ongoing effort to reduce the impacts of climate change, last month the California Air Resources Board (CARB) approved Advanced Clean Cars II which requires that all new passenger cars and trucks sold in the state to be electric, hybrid, or otherwise zero emission (New York Times, CARB). California is the only state that can implement emissions standards that are more stringent than federal requirements (CARB, Environmental Protection Agency). Other states can opt to follow federal guidelines or California guidelines, and a number of other states are moving to adopt these more stringent standards (Fox Business, The Hill). Such moves are contentious and California’s new standards are expected to be challenged in court (New York Times, The Hill).  


This question will be resolved by counting the total number of states that have the 2035 target that California has implemented in place on 28 February 2023. If any state’s emissions-producing vehicle ban is pending appeal on 28 February 2023, that state’s ban will still count toward the overall total.  

Outcome

Answer Final crowd forecast Resolution
Less than 5 14% Did not happen
Between 5 and 11, inclusive 83% Happened
Between 12 and 17, inclusive 3% Did not happen
More than or equal to 18 0% Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Sep 2022 Dec 2022 Mar 2023 83% 14% 3% 0%
Between 5 and 11, inclusive Less than 5 Between 12 and 17, inclusive More than or equal to 18
The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.