How many major hurricanes (Category 3 or above) will make landfall in the continental United States between 1 June 2025 and 30 September 2025?

Multiple choice Opened 9 June 2025 Closed 30 September 2025 Resolved 1 October 2025 518 forecasts 127 forecasters

The National Weather Service ranks hurricanes into categories from 1 to 5 based on wind speed using the Saffir-Simpson scale. Any storm reaching at least a Category 3 is considered to be a major hurricane (NOAA). Of the 18 named storms in 2024, there were 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes (Wikipedia, Weather Underground). Comparatively, in 2023, there were 20 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes (Wikipedia, Weather Underground).
Resolution Criteria: This question will be resolved based on the National Weather Service’s determination of a hurricane’s strength when it makes landfall in the continental United States. Hurricanes that are Category 4 in the Atlantic Basin, but Category 2 when making landfall will not count towards the total. Similarly, hurricanes that make landfall on Puerto Rico or the U.S. Virgin Islands will not count towards resolution.

Outcome

Answer	Final crowd forecast	Resolution
Less than or equal to 1	99%	Happened
Between 2 and 3, inclusive	1%	Did not happen
Between 4 and 5, inclusive	0%	Did not happen
More than or equal to 6	0%	Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

Less than or equal to 1 Between 4 and 5, inclusive Between 2 and 3, inclusive More than or equal to 6

The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.