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How many European Union countries will have an AI skill migration greater than 2 per 10,000 in 2022?

Multiple choice Opened 28 April 2022 Closed 1 January 2023 Resolved 20 April 2023 216 forecasts 40 forecasters
AI skills migration refers to the AI talent gained or lost due to migration trends. Question will be resolved using data from the OECD’s policy observatory’s data on AI jobs and skills. This data is from the World Bank Group-LinkedIn "Digital Data for Development" partnership.  
The link will take you to the “Between Country AI Skills Migration” page. Select “OECD Countries” as the group and then click the CSV icon to download the data. Note that Cyprus and Malta are not included in this dataset. 
The list of European Union countries can be found here. In 2021, 6 European Union Countries had AI skill migration greater than 2: Austria, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Ireland, and Luxembourg. 
See here for more information about the OECD’s methodology and the LinkedIn data they use for this metric. Question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and resolved when the OECD database is updated.  
New to AI? Check out our blog post on AI competitiveness for a list of resources to jumpstart your research. To learn more about the OECD data and how it's used by policy makers, check out this video.

Outcome

Answer Final crowd forecast Resolution
Less than 3 2% Happened
Between 3 and 5, inclusive 12% Did not happen
Between 6 and 7, inclusive 46% Did not happen
Between 8 and 10, inclusive 36% Did not happen
More than 10 4% Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Apr 2022 Sep 2022 Dec 2022 46% 36% 12% 4% 2%
Between 6 and 7, inclusive Between 8 and 10, inclusive Between 3 and 5, inclusive More than 10 Less than 3
The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.