What percentage of the continental U.S. will be experiencing severe drought or worse on 22 February 2022?

Multiple choice Opened 31 January 2022 Closed 22 February 2022 Resolved 24 February 2022 100 forecasts 43 forecasters

Climate change is making droughts more frequent, severe and pervasive (NASA) and is one of the Environmental Protection Agency's Climate Change Indicators. In January 2022, over 36% of the continental United States was experiencing severe drought or worse, according to the US Drought Monitor. The Western United States has been at particular risk (New York Times) with a majority of the region experiencing severe drought over the past year.

Question will be resolved based on the data available at the US Drought Monitor at 5pm ET on 22 February 2022.

"Severe drought or worse" refers to a U.S. Drought Monitor classification of D2-D4 (severe, extreme, or exceptional drought).

Outcome

Answer	Final crowd forecast	Resolution
Less than 33.0	1%	Did not happen
Between 33.0 and 35.5, inclusive	22%	Did not happen
More than 35.5 but less than 36.5	46%	Happened
Between 36.5 and 39.0, inclusive	30%	Did not happen
More than 39.0	2%	Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

More than 35.5 but less than 36.5 Between 33.0 and 35.5, inclusive Between 36.5 and 39.0, inclusive More than 39.0 Less than 33.0

The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.