What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022?
Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020 and 2021. The crowd's mean forecast for 2020 was $506 billion, and the correct answer was $560.1 billion. The crowd's mean forecast for 2021 is $524 billion. You can view those forecasts here and here.
Context. The U.S. and China are the world's two largest economies and each other's largest trading partner. Since 2018, they have been engaged in an escalating trade war, and the COVID-19 pandemic has further reduced trade.
Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on U.S. Census Bureau data. It includes trade in goods only, not services.
The data underlying the graph is here.
This question is a metric for the following scenarios:
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Outcome
| Answer | Final crowd forecast | Resolution |
|---|---|---|
| Less than $400 billion | 2% | Did not happen |
| Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive | 10% | Did not happen |
| More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion | 56% | Did not happen |
| More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion | 30% | Happened |
| More than $775 billion | 2% | Did not happen |
“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.