Will Israel and Sudan sign an agreement normalizing diplomatic relations by 31 December 2023?
In 2020, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco signed agreements establishing diplomatic relations with Israel (Foreign Policy, Brookings, Al Jazeera). Sudan also signed the Abraham Accords promising to establish relations, but unlike the other signatories, did not immediately follow up with a bilateral agreement, due in large part to political instability in Sudan (Al Jazeera). A military coup in October 2021 further delayed normalization efforts (CNN).
In February 2023, Israel and Sudan agreed on the text of a normalization agreement, and the signing is expected to happen later this year once the Sudanese military has transferred power to a civilian government (Reuters, Times of Israel). The transfer is set to occur on 11 April 2023, but some political figures within Sudan have condemned the decision, decrying a lack of consensus on key issues (AP News, Africa News).
This question will resolve “Yes” if Israel and Sudan sign an agreement normalizing diplomatic relations between them on or before 31 December 2023.
In February 2023, Israel and Sudan agreed on the text of a normalization agreement, and the signing is expected to happen later this year once the Sudanese military has transferred power to a civilian government (Reuters, Times of Israel). The transfer is set to occur on 11 April 2023, but some political figures within Sudan have condemned the decision, decrying a lack of consensus on key issues (AP News, Africa News).
This question will resolve “Yes” if Israel and Sudan sign an agreement normalizing diplomatic relations between them on or before 31 December 2023.
Outcome
| Outcome | Final crowd forecast | Resolution |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | Did not happen |
“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.