For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?

For each of the 5 quarters listed, enter the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will drop below 40%. Note that probabilities across the quarters need not sum to 100%, and multiple answers can be correct.  

The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is the world’s largest manufacturer of semiconductors and a critical supplier of the cutting-edge chips needed to produce everything from cars and computers to medical equipment and other modern electronics (Time, SIA). Consequently, interruptions in the U.S.’ ability to acquire semiconductors from Taiwan would have a devastating impact on supply chains (Forbes). 

This question will be resolved using TSMC’s Quarterly Management Reports, which can be found on their Financial Results page. Click on the relevant year and quarter, then click the document labeled “Management Report.” The percentage of revenue coming from North America is listed in the “Revenue Analysis” section of the report under “Net Revenue by Geography.” You can find the 2022 Q4 Management Report here. Quarterly data from 2018-2022 is provided below:

Quarter	% Revenue from North America
2022 Q4	69%
2022 Q3	72%
2022 Q2	66%
2022 Q1	64%
2021 Q4	66%
2021 Q3	67%
2021 Q2	64%
2021 Q1	67%
2020 Q4	58%
2020 Q3	59%
2020 Q2	58%
2020 Q1	60%
2019 Q4	59%
2019 Q3	60%
2019 Q2	69%
2019 Q1	60%
2018 Q4	69%
2018 Q3	60%
2018 Q2	53%
2018 Q1	59%