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How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?

Multiple choice Opened 6 January 2021 Closed 27 August 2021 Resolved 4 January 2022 400 forecasts 134 forecasters

Context. On Monday, January 4, a group of Google tech workers announced they'd formed the Alphabet Workers Union. The union, unprecedented in Silicon Valley, is the culmination of years of employee activism at Google relating to issues such as sexual harassment, algorithmic bias, and pay equity. In addition, as reported by Vox, "Google worker concerns also include ethical questions about how the company is run, like whether it should be making software used in warfare or border patrol."

The union is a minority union, meaning it doesn't seek to represent a majority of Google employees in a "bargaining unit" under U.S. labor law. As reported by the New York Times, "workers said it was primarily an effort to give structure and longevity to activism at Google, rather than to negotiate for a contract." 

Nevertheless, whether the union affects how Google is run will depend in part on how many members it attracts. As of Monday, it reported more than 225 members, out of the over 260,000 eligible employees and contractors. The union has not yet reported how many new members it attracted after Monday's public announcement.

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the most recent membership numbers reported by the union as of December 31, 2021. 

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Outcome

Answer Final crowd forecast Resolution
Less than 800 10% Did not happen
Between 800 and 4,000 69% Happened
More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000 16% Did not happen
More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000 4% Did not happen
More than 100,000 1% Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Jan 2021 May 2021 Aug 2021 69% 16% 10% 4% 1%
Between 800 and 4,000 More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000 Less than 800 More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000 More than 100,000
The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.