Will an AI-generated film or episode be released by Netflix, Hulu, Disney+, Max, Apple TV+, or Amazon Prime before 1 September 2023?
Generative AI is transforming the entertainment industry and bringing AI-powered text-to-video tools to the masses (Fortune, Mpost). An AI text-to-video film won the Jury Award at Cannes in 2023 (Nextweb).
Resolution Criteria:The film, episode, or series must be at least 20 minutes in length, and whether or not a film or episode was AI-generated will be determined using official credits, statements by the humans involved in making it, and/or reputable news media reports. The use of non AI-generated video input into an AI-generator would still count (e.g., The Crow). Having AI-generated components in only a few scenes, for background images, or parts of the video will not suffice (e.g., Dog and Boy). A film or episode consisting of a series of still images will count as long as text-to-video technology was used to create them. A film or episode written by AI (e.g., ChatGPT) but otherwise created using traditional production methods would not count.
Resolution Criteria:The film, episode, or series must be at least 20 minutes in length, and whether or not a film or episode was AI-generated will be determined using official credits, statements by the humans involved in making it, and/or reputable news media reports. The use of non AI-generated video input into an AI-generator would still count (e.g., The Crow). Having AI-generated components in only a few scenes, for background images, or parts of the video will not suffice (e.g., Dog and Boy). A film or episode consisting of a series of still images will count as long as text-to-video technology was used to create them. A film or episode written by AI (e.g., ChatGPT) but otherwise created using traditional production methods would not count.
Outcome
| Answer | Final crowd forecast | Resolution |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Did not happen |
| No | 99% | Happened |
“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.
Crowd forecast over time
No
Yes