How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for October, November, and December 2023 combined?
Advances in artificial Intelligence, robotics, and sensory technology have sparked a revolution in self-driving vehicles (NHTSA, Wired). However, concerns about safety and distrust of AI may hamper progress (National Law Review, International Journal of Human Computer Interaction).
On August 10, California regulators loosened restrictions on Cruise and Waymo, allowing them to operate self-driving taxis (or “robotaxis”) across San Francisco at all hours and charge fares (Wired, Vox). This decision was met with some controversy and pushback, as the city of San Francisco asked state regulators to pause approvals less than a week later (SF Chronicle). Collisions involving autonomous vehicles later led regulators to order Cruise to reduce the number of operating robotaxis (CBS, CNN). Resolution Criteria: Question will be resolved by counting the California DMV’s Autonomous Vehicle Collision reports with accident dates from October through December 2023. For reference, a spreadsheet containing the total count of collision reports for each month from January 2017 through August 2023 is available here.
The California Department of Motor Vehicles requires that manufacturers who are testing autonomous vehicles report any collision that resulted in property damage, bodily injury, or death within 10 days of the incident. To account for lags in reporting, the question will close for forecasting on 31 December 2023 and resolve in late January 2024. Additional Reading:
On August 10, California regulators loosened restrictions on Cruise and Waymo, allowing them to operate self-driving taxis (or “robotaxis”) across San Francisco at all hours and charge fares (Wired, Vox). This decision was met with some controversy and pushback, as the city of San Francisco asked state regulators to pause approvals less than a week later (SF Chronicle). Collisions involving autonomous vehicles later led regulators to order Cruise to reduce the number of operating robotaxis (CBS, CNN). Resolution Criteria: Question will be resolved by counting the California DMV’s Autonomous Vehicle Collision reports with accident dates from October through December 2023. For reference, a spreadsheet containing the total count of collision reports for each month from January 2017 through August 2023 is available here.
The California Department of Motor Vehicles requires that manufacturers who are testing autonomous vehicles report any collision that resulted in property damage, bodily injury, or death within 10 days of the incident. To account for lags in reporting, the question will close for forecasting on 31 December 2023 and resolve in late January 2024. Additional Reading:
- Standing General Order on Crash Reporting (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration)
- What are Self-Driving Cars and How Do They Work? (TechTarget)
- What Driverless Waymo Taxi Rides Are Like in San Francisco (New York Times)
- Cruise and Waymo see a surge in robotaxi app downloads (TechCrunch)
- Labor Day protest against Cruise robotaxis in San Francisco (NBC Bay Area)
Outcome
| Answer | Final crowd forecast | Resolution |
|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 24 | 95% | Happened |
| Between 25 and 34, inclusive | 3% | Did not happen |
| Between 35 and 44, inclusive | 1% | Did not happen |
| Between 45 and 54, inclusive | 1% | Did not happen |
| More than or equal to 55 | 0% | Did not happen |
“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.
Crowd forecast over time
Less than or equal to 24
Between 35 and 44, inclusive
Between 45 and 54, inclusive
Between 25 and 34, inclusive
More than or equal to 55