From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 1000 or more fatalities from conflicts or political violence in Kenya?
This question will be resolved using the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) project’s dashboard. To count the number of fatalities in Kenya for a given time period:
Additional Reading:
- Adjust the “Event Date” filter to the relevant dates.
- Select the following event types:
- Battles
- Violence against civilians
- Explosions/Remote violence
- Riots
- Protests
- Select “Kenya” from the Region filter.
- Click “Apply Filters”
- Change the dropdown box located on the upper right side of the line graph from “Event Count” to “Fatalities”
Additional Reading:
- Kenya’s Political Violence Landscape in the Lead-Up to the 2022 Elections (UN OCHA)
- Three things to know about Kenya's elections tomorrow (Washington Post)
- Kenya Travel Advisory (U.S. State Department)
- Everything you need to know about human rights in Kenya (Amnesty International)
Outcome
| Outcome | Final crowd forecast | Resolution |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Did not happen |
“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.