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Will a G7 country boycott the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics before January 1, 2022?

Yes/No Opened 20 April 2021 Closed 27 August 2021 Resolved 4 January 2022 524 forecasts 193 forecasters

Related question. A related question on Good Judgment Open asks about the chance of a U.S. boycott.

Context. The 2022 Winter Olympics are scheduled to occur in Beijing between February 4 and 20, 2022.

In recent months, countries, companies, and athletes have faced rising pressure to boycott the Beijing Olympics because of China's treatment of Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang (CNBCEconomist, Guardian). More than 180 organizations have called to boycott the Beijing Olympics (BBC, Economist). Tensions rose further following sanctions by the UK, U.S., Canada, and the EU against China for "serious human rights abuses" (CNN). The Biden administration has floated the idea of a boycott (Financial Times) and has reportedly discussed a joint boycott with U.S. allies (AP News).

Countries have boycotted the Olympics for various reasons throughout history (Montreal GazetteHistory.com). The U.S boycotted the Moscow Olympics to protest the Soviet Union’s invasion of Afghanistan, and sixty-five nations refused to participate in the games (U.S State Gov). Most of the nations of Sub-Saharan Africa boycotted the Summer Olympics in Montreal to protest the attendance of New Zealand after the latter sent its rugby team to play against the team from apartheid South Africa (U.S State Gov).

Resolution details. The outcome of this question will be determined by reputable media reporting or an official announcement that a G7 country is boycotting the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics. G7 countries are Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, and the U.S.

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Outcome

Outcome Final crowd forecast Resolution
Yes 10% Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Apr 2021 Jun 2021 Aug 2021 10% Yes
The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.