How many incidents of piracy and armed robbery will be reported in the IMO GSIS database for February 2026?

Multiple choice Opened 29 January 2026 Closed 1 March 2026 Resolved 6 April 2026 86 forecasts 18 forecasters

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) tracks global piracy and armed robbery incidents through its Global Integrated Shipping Information System (GISIS), publishing monthly reports that serve as a primary reference for maritime security trends. In 2024, 146 incidents were reported to the IMO, down slightly from 150 in 2023 and up from 131 in 2022 (SAFETY4SEA). The Straits of Malacca and Singapore remain the most affected region, accounting for 91 of the 146 incidents in 2024, a 7% increase from 2023 (IMO Annual Report 2024). The International Maritime Bureau (IMB), which uses slightly different reporting criteria, recorded 116 incidents in 2024 and reported a 50% increase in incidents during the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, suggesting an upward trend (ICC-CCS, electroiq).

Resolution Criteria:

This question will be resolved using the International Maritime Organization's Global Integrated Shipping Information System (GISIS) Piracy and Armed Robbery database. The count will include all incidents listed in the database with a date falling between 1 February 2026 00:00 UTC and 28 February 2026 23:59 UTC, regardless of geographic area.

To allow for late reporting, this question will not resolve until 14 March 2026. If the GISIS database is inaccessible or discontinued, the IMO's monthly or annual piracy reports may be used as an alternative source. Historical data on piracy trends can be found in the IMO's annual and monthly Reports on Piracy and Armed Robbery Against Ships.

Outcome

Answer	Final crowd forecast	Resolution
Less than 8	100%	Happened
Between 8 and 11, inclusive	0%	Did not happen
Between 12 and 15, inclusive	0%	Did not happen
Between 16 and 19, inclusive	0%	Did not happen
More than or equal to 20	0%	Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

Less than 8 Between 12 and 15, inclusive Between 8 and 11, inclusive Between 16 and 19, inclusive More than or equal to 20

The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.