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What will the 'Big 5' (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft) tech companies' average reputation ranking be in the 2022 Axios Harris poll?

Multiple choice Opened 20 May 2021 Closed 28 February 2022 Resolved 25 May 2022 553 forecasts 122 forecasters

Context. According to the Axios Harris Poll's recently released 2021 Corporate Reputation Rankings, the reputation of big tech companies has taken a "pandemic plunge." Among the Big 5 tech companies -- Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft -- Amazon remains at the top at #10 (out of 100), and Facebook remains at the bottom at #98 (out of 100). Between those two extremes, Microsoft and Google's rankings dropped significantly since 2020. Only Apple's ranking improved between 2020 and 2021, from #27 to #16 (out of 100).

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the results of the 2022 Axios Harris Poll. Based on the publication schedule of previous polls, we expect the 2022 poll to be released between February and July 2022.

The Axios Harris poll describes its methodology as follows: "The Axios Harris Poll 100 is based on a survey of 42,935 Americans in a nationally representative sample. The two-step process starts fresh each year by surveying the public’s top-of-mind awareness of companies that either excel or falter in society. These 100 'most visible companies' are then rated by a second group of Americans across the seven key dimensions of reputation to determine the ranking. If a company is not on the list, it did not reach a critical level of visibility to be measured."

Note on reading the graph: The x-axis is the average company ranking out of 100. That means a higher number = a worse reputation. 

The data underlying the graph is here.

This question was proposed by Foretell pro forecaster Anthony Cordetti (username: ACordetti).

To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.

Outcome

Answer Final crowd forecast Resolution
Less than 30 (good reputation) 7% Did not happen
Between 30 and 40, inclusive 19% Happened
More than 40 but less than or equal to 50 40% Did not happen
More than 50 but less than or equal to 60 29% Did not happen
More than 60 (bad reputation) 6% Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% May 2021 Oct 2021 Feb 2022 40% 29% 19% 7% 6%
More than 40 but less than or equal to 50 More than 50 but less than or equal to 60 Between 30 and 40, inclusive Less than 30 (good reputation) More than 60 (bad reputation)
The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.