Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022?

Yes/No Opened 3 November 2022 Closed 1 January 2023 Resolved 5 January 2023 415 forecasts 188 forecasters

China’s zero Covid policy has allowed government officials to boast of relatively few Covid deaths compared to the rest of the world (New York Times, France 24). However, many have raised concerns that such strict measures are damaging to the Chinese economy (BBC). In the lead up to the National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in October, some had hoped that the Chinese government would begin to lift COVID restrictions, but President Xi Jinping reaffirmed China’s commitment to the zero Covid policy (Bloomberg, New York Times).
This question will resolve using official statements from national Chinese Communist Party officials.

Outcome

Outcome	Final crowd forecast	Resolution
Yes	4%	Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.