What will be the highest price per barrel of Brent crude oil between 4 December 2023 and 31 March 2024?

Multiple choice Opened 4 December 2023 Closed 1 April 2024 Resolved 1 April 2024 574 forecasts 89 forecasters

Analysts are concerned that the war between Hamas and Israel could disrupt the oil supply in the region, especially from Iran, a major crude oil producer (Reuters). Cuts in production from Iran could lead to rises in the price of Brent crude, with Goldman Sachs estimating that any 100,000 barrel a day decline in Iran’s production would raise the Brent oil price by over $1 a barrel (WSJ).
Resolution Criteria: This question will be resolved using the highest price of Brent crude oil reported by TradingEconomics.com.
On Trading Economics, changing the chart from a line chart to a candlestick chart (see image below) will show the open (O), intraday high (H), intraday low (L), and close (C) prices on any given day. The question will be resolved using the highest intraday high between 4 December 2023 and 31 March 2024.

This question is part of the issue decomposition on “Iran's Influence on Violent Non-State Actors.” For more, see INFER's explainer, issue reports, and other questions in this decomposition.

Outcome

Answer	Final crowd forecast	Resolution
Less than $90	96%	Happened
More than or equal to $90 but less than $100	4%	Did not happen
More than or equal to $100 but less than $110	0%	Did not happen
More than or equal to $110 but less than $120	0%	Did not happen
More than or equal to $120	0%	Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

Less than $90 More than or equal to $90 but less than $100 More than or equal to $100 but less than $110 More than or equal to $110 but less than $120 More than or equal to $120

The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.