When will 1 billion people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?

Multiple choice Opened 8 July 2021 Closed 1 October 2022 Resolved 28 April 2022 1,026 forecasts 189 forecasters

Context. In Spring 2021, India became the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic (CNBC; BBC). As of December 20, 2021, 829 million people in India have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine.

Data and resolution details. The outcome will be determined using data reported by the Indian government. Click "Vaccination State Data," which opens a daily PDF report, "Cumulative Coverage Report of COVID-19 Vaccination." Navigate to the "India" row in the column titled "1st Dose." Data is reported in Indian notation; one hundred crore (1,00,00,00,000) is equivalent to one billion (1,000,000,000) in international notation.

For time series data, see Our World in Data. Underlying data from Our World in Data is here.

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Outcome

Answer	Final crowd forecast	Resolution
Before January 1, 2022	4%	Did not happen
Between January 1, 2022, and March 31, 2022	8%	Did not happen
Between April 1, 2022 and June 30, 2022	66%	Happened
Between July 1, 2022 and September 30, 2022	11%	Did not happen
Not before October 1, 2022	11%	Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

Between April 1, 2022 and June 30, 2022 Not before October 1, 2022 Between January 1, 2022, and March 31, 2022 Between July 1, 2022 and September 30, 2022 Before January 1, 2022

The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.