What percentage of the UK’s consumption of transport fuels will come from biofuels in 2023?

Multiple choice Opened 23 February 2023 Closed 1 January 2024 Resolved 1 April 2024 716 forecasts 91 forecasters

This question will resolve using data from the UK’s Energy Trends report on biofuels' share of the total volume of road fuels in 2023. This data is reported in the “Liquid Biofuels for Transport Consumption (ET 6.2-quarterly)”. See the “Main table” sheet tab and the row marked “Total biofuels as per cent of road fuels”. The percentage for 2021 was 4.9% and 2020 was 5.7%. Question will close for forecasting on 31 December 2023 and resolve when the Q4 data is released in March 2024. A chart showing biofuels’ share of total transport fuels is below::

Read more about the future of biofuels on the INFER blog.

Outcome

Answer	Final crowd forecast	Resolution
Less than 5%	1%	Did not happen
More than or equal to 5% but less than 6%	0%	Did not happen
More than or equal to 6%	98%	Happened

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

More than or equal to 6% Less than 5% More than or equal to 5% but less than 6%

The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.