How many AI scientific publications will be published by EU institutions in 2022?

Multiple choice Opened 9 June 2022 Closed 1 January 2023 Resolved 24 April 2023 199 forecasts 43 forecasters

Question will be resolved using Scopus data from the OECD AI Policy Observatory’s data on AI research. The link will take you to the “AI scientific publications by subject area, from Scopus” page. Set the following parameters for the data:

Indicator: Publications
Country: EU (27)
Subject Area: Artificial Intelligence

See here for more information about the OECD’s methodology and the Elsevier (Scopus) data. Question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and resolved in the first week of April 2023 to account for any lags in reporting.

Outcome

Answer	Final crowd forecast	Resolution
Less than 2,500	3%	Did not happen
More than or equal to 2,500 but less than 3,000	13%	Did not happen
More than or equal to 3,000	84%	Happened

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

More than or equal to 3,000 Less than 2,500 More than or equal to 2,500 but less than 3,000

The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.