From 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023, will ACLED record 800 or more civilian fatalities in El Salvador?

Yes/No Opened 1 September 2022 Closed 1 September 2023 Resolved 17 January 2024 374 forecasts 55 forecasters

This question will be resolved using the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) project’s dashboard. To count the number of fatalities in El Salvador for a given time period:

Adjust the “Event Date” filter to the relevant dates.
Select “Violence against civilians” from the event type filter.
Select “El Salvador” from the Region filter.
Click “Apply Filters”.
Change the dropdown box located on the upper right side of the line graph from “Event Count” to “Fatalities”.

Additional Reading:

Outcome

Outcome	Final crowd forecast	Resolution
Yes	0%	Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.