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What will be the price per ton of aluminum on 1 June 2022?

Multiple choice Opened 31 March 2022 Closed 1 June 2022 Resolved 2 June 2022 310 forecasts 88 forecasters

An aluminum shortage has seen the price of aluminum rise to historically high levels in recent months. Sanctions on Russia, the 3rd largest supplier of aluminum, may worsen the shortage and cause prices to rise even higher. This question will be resolved using the “close” price of aluminum on June 1, 2022, as reported by Markets Insider.  

Additional Reading: 

    Outcome

    Answer Final crowd forecast Resolution
    Less than $3000 85% Happened
    More than or equal to $3000 but less than $3500 13% Did not happen
    More than or equal to $3500 but less than $4000 1% Did not happen
    More than or equal to $4000 0% Did not happen

    “Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

    Crowd forecast over time

    0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Mar 2022 May 2022 Jun 2022 85% 13% 1% 0%
    Less than $3000 More than or equal to $3000 but less than $3500 More than or equal to $3500 but less than $4000 More than or equal to $4000
    The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.