Will the value of 1 US Dollar equal or exceed 800,000 Iranian Rial on the open market (or 80,000 Toman, as reported on Bonbast) before 1 September 2023?
The Iranian economy has been taking a downturn, due in part to continued U.S. sanctions and civil unrest (Reuters, WSJ).
The Iranian Rial has an official exchange rate subsidized by the Iranian Central Bank, but the open market rate moves freely and more accurately reflects the price paid throughout the country (Al Jazeera).
This question will resolve “Yes” if the price of 1 USD on Bonbast reaches or exceeds 800,000 before 1 September 2023. Note that Bonbast reports prices in Iranian Toman, which equal 10 Rial, so a price of 800,000 Rial for 1 USD would be displayed as 80,000 on Bonbast.
The Iranian Rial has an official exchange rate subsidized by the Iranian Central Bank, but the open market rate moves freely and more accurately reflects the price paid throughout the country (Al Jazeera).
This question will resolve “Yes” if the price of 1 USD on Bonbast reaches or exceeds 800,000 before 1 September 2023. Note that Bonbast reports prices in Iranian Toman, which equal 10 Rial, so a price of 800,000 Rial for 1 USD would be displayed as 80,000 on Bonbast.
Outcome
| Outcome | Final crowd forecast | Resolution |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Did not happen |
“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.