Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army invade Taiwan by May 31, 2021?
Context. The People’s Republic of China regards Taiwan as an inevitable part of its territory and has threatened to invade it if the Taiwanese government takes steps toward formally declaring independence (Anti-Seccession Law, 2005). The current President of Taiwan, Tsai Ying-wen, belongs to a pro-independence political party. She was re-elected to office in January 2020. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) has also conducted force modernization and drills to improve its readiness to invade Taiwan (2019 China Military Power Report).
Data and resolution details. The question resolves based on popular media sources. "Invade" refers to initiating hostilities for the purpose of annexation.
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Outcome
| Outcome | Final crowd forecast | Resolution |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | Did not happen |
“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.
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