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Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?

Yes/No Opened 6 June 2023 Closed 1 June 2024 Resolved 6 June 2024 1,357 forecasts 272 forecasters

The advent of ChatGPT and other generative artificial intelligence (AI) tools has raised concerns about how AI can be used to generate and spread disinformation at a much larger scale (Poynter, CSET, PBS). As a result, organizations have been working to develop tools that can identify text as written by artificial intelligence (Platformer, Tech Monitor, OpenAI, NPR).  


Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve as “Yes” if Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by artificial intelligence.
  • Labels must be issued by the platform. User-generated labels (e.g., Twitter’s Community Notes) will not be sufficient on their own.
  • Labels can be viewable on a feed or when a user interacts with a post (e.g., by sharing or forwarding it).
  • A labeling policy which is only applied to select users or certain regions will still count. 
  • Research into labeling AI-generated text will not be sufficient unless it is accompanied by an announced policy or platform update in which AI-generated text is labeled for users or a subset of users. 
  • Labeling must apply to text written by generative AI. Labeling of images or videos generated by AI will not count towards resolution.

Additional Reading:

Outcome

Answer Final crowd forecast Resolution
Yes 10% Did not happen
No 90% Happened

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Jun 2023 Dec 2023 Jun 2024 90% 10%
No Yes
The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.