From 1 April 2022 to 1 April 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Russia?

Multiple choice Opened 24 March 2022 Closed 1 April 2023 Resolved 17 April 2023 844 forecasts 117 forecasters

The invasion of Ukraine has sparked protests within Russia, despite Putin’s warnings (Reuters, Time, New York Times).

Question will be resolved using the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) project’s dashboard. To count the number of protests and riot events in Russia for a given time period:

Adjust the “Event Date” filter to the relevant dates.
Select “Riots” and “Protests” from the event type filter.
Select “Russia” from the Region filter.
Click “Apply Filters”.
Ensure the dropdown box located on the upper right side of the line graph displays “Event Count”.

Outcome

Answer	Final crowd forecast	Resolution
Less than 200	1%	Did not happen
More than or equal to 200 but less than 400	97%	Happened
More than or equal to 400 but less than 600	2%	Did not happen
More than or equal to 600 but less than 800	0%	Did not happen
More than or equal to 800 but less than 1000	0%	Did not happen
More than or equal to 1000	0%	Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

More than or equal to 200 but less than 400 Less than 200 More than or equal to 400 but less than 600 More than or equal to 600 but less than 800 More than or equal to 800 but less than 1000 More than or equal to 1000

The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.