Will the share of battery-electric vehicles among new registered cars in the EU exceed 20% by the second quarter of 2025?
In the first quarter of 2025, new battery-electric vehicle (BEV) registrations in the EU grew by 23.9%, to 412,997 units, capturing 15.2% of total EU market share as compared to 12% in Q1 in 2024 (ACEA). European buyers have been heavily influenced by general global economic uncertainty, growing competition from China, and Elon Musk’s political activity, which has impacted the sales of Tesla vehicles (Reuters, Statista). In the first quarter of 2025, Tesla sales dropped by approximately 62% in Germany, and other EU countries have shown similar trends (Statista).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on information from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA), which reports on registrations of various types of vehicles in the EU in monthly press releases. The question will resolve based on the number of new battery-electric vehicles registered in the EU in Q2 2025, which ends on 30 June 2025, and will resolve "Yes" if the year-to-date percentage of BEV registrations (i.e., registrations since January) exceeds 20% in any monthly report from April to June 2025. The most recent “New car registrations” press release (for Q1 2025) is available here.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on information from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA), which reports on registrations of various types of vehicles in the EU in monthly press releases. The question will resolve based on the number of new battery-electric vehicles registered in the EU in Q2 2025, which ends on 30 June 2025, and will resolve "Yes" if the year-to-date percentage of BEV registrations (i.e., registrations since January) exceeds 20% in any monthly report from April to June 2025. The most recent “New car registrations” press release (for Q1 2025) is available here.
Outcome
| Answer | Final crowd forecast | Resolution |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Did not happen |
| No | 99% | Happened |
“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.
Crowd forecast over time
No
Yes