Will a new multilateral security agreement involving at least three Middle East and North Africa (MENA) states (excluding Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel) be publicly announced by 30 June 2026?

The announcement of new multilateral security agreements among at least three MENA states (excluding Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel) would signal a shift toward greater regional cooperation and stability. Historical examples include the Gulf Cooperation Council Joint Defense Agreement (2000); the Joint Security Cooperation (2014) and the Islamic Military Counter Terrorism Coalition (2015); the Abraham Accords (2020); the I2U2 Group Agreements (2022); and more recently, the Arab League/Syria reinstatement (2023). 

Resolution Criteria: 

This question will be resolved through official government announcements of a completed multilateral security agreement by the MENA states and/or credible news reports of such an agreement.   

A multilateral security agreement is defined as a formal, publicly announced accord, treaty, or memorandum of understanding involving at least three sovereign MENA states (excluding Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel) that addresses military cooperation, collective defense, intelligence sharing, joint security operations, or coordinated responses to regional security threats. The agreement must be explicitly described as relating to security or defense matters in official statements or credible reporting and must be signed by the participating governments. Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and/or Israel may be part of the security agreement, provided that at least three other MENA countries are also party to the agreement. 

The list of relevant MENA countries include: Algeria, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Malta, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, Tunisia, UAE, and the West Bank/Gaza region.