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Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?

Yes/No Opened 1 April 2024 Closed 1 April 2025 Resolved 28 April 2025 618 forecasts 60 forecasters
The O-RAN Alliance (O-RAN) is an organization that creates standards for telecommunication technology to ensure that mobile network telecommunications equipment operate within an open architecture and are interoperable between vendors. One way that manufacturers can show that a product complies with O-RAN standards is by obtaining an O-RAN Certificate from one of O-RAN’s Open Testing and Integration Centres (OTIC). In August 2023, O-RAN announced the opening of four new OTICs in the U.S. (Business Wire). However, no companies have received certificates from an OTIC in the U.S. to date.

Resolution Criteria:  This question will be resolved using the O-RAN Certification and Badging Catalogue. To count towards resolution, the catalog entry must show the following:
  • “Date of issued certificate” must be on or after 2024-04-01 and on or before 2025-03-31
  • “Type” must be “Certificate”
  • “OTIC name” must be any of the North American OTICs, which are listed here
In the event that the question is not resolved before the question closes for forecasting, the INFER team will wait until late April to resolve this question to allow for delays in updating the catalog. Note that the question will be resolved as of the “Date of issued certificate” listed in the catalog.

Outcome

Answer Final crowd forecast Resolution
Yes 3% Did not happen
No 97% Happened

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Apr 2024 Oct 2024 Mar 2025 97% 3%
No Yes
The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.