Will the Brothers of Italy Party (FdI) win the most seats in the 2022 Italian general election?

Yes/No Opened 28 July 2022 Closed 25 September 2022 Resolved 27 September 2022 129 forecasts 55 forecasters

Italy will hold an early election on 25 September 2022 after President Sergio Mattarella officially called the vote and dissolved parliament on 21 July following Mario Draghi’s resignation as prime minister. The center-right Brothers of Italy and the center-left Democratic Party are head-to-head in the first polls conducted after Draghi’s resignation, with Brothers of Italy emerging as the main party in the center-right coalition (Bloomberg).
This question will resolve “Yes” if the Brothers of Italy Party wins a plurality of seats in the Italian Parliament following the 25 September 2022 general election. This question will be resolved once results are finalized, and will be resolved using reputable open-source news media reports (e.g., Reuters, NYTimes, AP, BBC).

Outcome

Outcome	Final crowd forecast	Resolution
Yes	89%	Happened

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.