RAND Forecasting
Initiative
Archive
The RAND Forecasting Initiative has concluded. This is a permanent read-only archive. Accounts, forecasting, and comments are no longer available.

← All questions

Will Microsoft announce an agreement to purchase TikTok service in the United States by September 15, 2020?

Yes/No Opened 5 August 2020 Closed 16 September 2020 Resolved 14 September 2020 295 forecasts 137 forecasters

Context. On July 31, 2020, President Trump threatened to ban the app TikTok in the United States, citing security concerns. Two days later, Microsoft announced that it had been in discussions with President Trump regarding purchasing TikTok service in the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) is conducting a security review and would need to approve the purchase. Microsoft said it would pursue the deal over the next few weeks and will complete the discussions no later than September 15.

Data and resolution details. This question will resolve based on an announcement by Microsoft that it has reached an agreement with TikTok and the U.S. government to purchase TikTok service in the United States.

***

To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.

Outcome

Outcome Final crowd forecast Resolution
Yes 38% Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

No aggregate forecast history is available for this question.