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Will a moon mission land safely on the moon between 1 September 2023 and 31 May 2024, inclusive?

Yes/No Opened 31 August 2023 Closed 1 June 2024 Resolved 22 January 2024 428 forecasts 98 forecasters
In August, India made history by becoming the first country to successfully land a spacecraft near the moon’s south pole and the fourth country to land on the moon at all (Science, Guardian). This comes in a year of increased space exploration activity, as Russia’s Luna-25 and the privately-funded Hakuto-R moon missions both ended in failure earlier this year (Reuters, ispace). Multiple moon missions are still planned for 2023, including two by private companies: Peregrine Mission 1 and Nova-C IM-1 (Spectrum). Japan’s “Moon Sniper”, whose August launch was postponed due to bad weather, may also still launch this year, but a new launch date has yet to be set (DW). 

Resolution Criteria:  This question will be resolved using reputable news reports and will be resolved as “Yes” if any organization safely lands on the moon before 1 June 2024. Minor damage to a spacecraft or other small problems that occur during its flight or landing would not necessarily prevent the question from being resolved as "Yes". A mission that ends in a crash or other event that results in catastrophic damage or loss of communication with the craft would be considered unsuccessful and would not count towards resolution.

Outcome

Answer Final crowd forecast Resolution
Yes 89% Happened
No 11% Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Aug 2023 Nov 2023 Jan 2024 89% 11%
Yes No
The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.