Will a moon mission land safely on the moon between 1 September 2023 and 31 May 2024, inclusive?
In August, India made history by becoming the first country to successfully land a spacecraft near the moon’s south pole and the fourth country to land on the moon at all (Science, Guardian). This comes in a year of increased space exploration activity, as Russia’s Luna-25 and the privately-funded Hakuto-R moon missions both ended in failure earlier this year (Reuters, ispace). Multiple moon missions are still planned for 2023, including two by private companies: Peregrine Mission 1 and Nova-C IM-1 (Spectrum). Japan’s “Moon Sniper”, whose August launch was postponed due to bad weather, may also still launch this year, but a new launch date has yet to be set (DW).
Resolution Criteria: This question will be resolved using reputable news reports and will be resolved as “Yes” if any organization safely lands on the moon before 1 June 2024. Minor damage to a spacecraft or other small problems that occur during its flight or landing would not necessarily prevent the question from being resolved as "Yes". A mission that ends in a crash or other event that results in catastrophic damage or loss of communication with the craft would be considered unsuccessful and would not count towards resolution.
Resolution Criteria: This question will be resolved using reputable news reports and will be resolved as “Yes” if any organization safely lands on the moon before 1 June 2024. Minor damage to a spacecraft or other small problems that occur during its flight or landing would not necessarily prevent the question from being resolved as "Yes". A mission that ends in a crash or other event that results in catastrophic damage or loss of communication with the craft would be considered unsuccessful and would not count towards resolution.
Outcome
| Answer | Final crowd forecast | Resolution |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 89% | Happened |
| No | 11% | Did not happen |
“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.
Crowd forecast over time
Yes
No