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Will the U.S. President sign legislation which appropriates funds for the Advanced Packaging Manufacturing Program during FY'22?

Multiple choice Opened 24 February 2022 Closed 1 October 2022 Resolved 10 August 2022 285 forecasts 67 forecasters

President Joe Biden’s American Jobs Plan calls for $50 billion in semiconductor manufacturing and research both as part of a broader jobs creation effort and to strengthen U.S. national security and ensure that the U.S. remains competitive in AI and other emerging technologies. In response to America’s declining share of the semiconductor manufacturing specifically, the U.S. President has called for increased investment in domestic semiconductor manufacturing and research (Semiconductor Industry Association). 

In Feb 2022, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the America COMPETES Act, which appropriates funding for semiconductor manufacturing (H.R. 4521). The Senate passed their version of the bill in June 2021 (S.1260). Congressional leaders must now work to reconcile the two bills before sending the to the President to be signed (CSIS, Semiconductor Industry Association). 

Semiconductor packaging connects integrated circuits to electronic products by transmitting signals from the silicon out to something that can actually be used. Advanced packaging embeds increased functionality into electronics by allowing for a higher density of electronic components in a smaller space. Both versions of the bill allocate $2.5 billion in funding for the Advanced Packaging Manufacturing Program (i.e., subsection (d) of section 9906 of Public Law 116-283) for Fiscal Year 2022. Fiscal Year 2022 began on Oct. 1, 2021 and ends Sept. 30, 2022. Funds allocated to the Advanced Packaging Manufacturing Program will be “transferred to and merged with accounts within the Department of Commerce to be used for such purposes."

Outcome

Answer Final crowd forecast Resolution
No, $0 appropriated 3% Did not happen
More than $0 but less than $1 billion 1% Did not happen
More than or equal to $1 billion but less than $2 billion 2% Did not happen
More than or equal to $2 billion but less than $2.5 billion 9% Did not happen
More than or equal to $2.5 billion 84% Happened

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Feb 2022 May 2022 Aug 2022 84% 9% 3% 2% 1%
More than or equal to $2.5 billion More than or equal to $2 billion but less than $2.5 billion No, $0 appropriated More than or equal to $1 billion but less than $2 billion More than $0 but less than $1 billion
The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.