What percentage of Arizona will be facing severe drought or worse on 5 July 2022?

Multiple choice Opened 14 April 2022 Closed 5 July 2022 Resolved 7 July 2022 322 forecasts 96 forecasters

Multiple semiconductor manufacturing companies have built or plan to build new fabs in Arizona. The availability of water has been of concern (The Verge, CNBC).
Question will be resolved based on data from the US Drought Monitor for 5 July 2022, expected to be available later that week.
To access data for Arizona, change the “Area Type” filter to “State” and the “Area” filter to “Arizona”.
"Severe drought or worse" refers to a U.S. Drought Monitor classification of D2-D4 (severe, extreme, or exceptional drought).

Outcome

Answer	Final crowd forecast	Resolution
Less than 50%	2%	Did not happen
More than or equal to 50% but less than 60%	3%	Did not happen
More than or equal to 60% but less than 70%	26%	Happened
More than or equal to 70% but less than 80%	60%	Did not happen
More than or equal to 80%	9%	Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

More than or equal to 70% but less than 80% More than or equal to 60% but less than 70% More than or equal to 50% but less than 60% More than or equal to 80% Less than 50%

The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.