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How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?

Multiple choice Opened 2 September 2020 Closed 7 December 2020 Resolved 1 February 2021 75 forecasts 65 forecasters

For more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: "Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?"

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is "private" if it's not publicly traded. This question resolves on January 30, 2021, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. 

For the third quarter of 2020 -- not reflected in the graph below -- private U.S. tech companies raised $6.8 billion in July, $9.3 billion in August, and $14.1 billion in September, for a total of $30.2 billion. The chart below does not include an anomalous $100 billion raised by Broadcom Limited in February 2018. 

The data underlying the graph is here.

This question is a metric for the following scenarios:

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Outcome

Answer Final crowd forecast Resolution
Less than $40 billion 5% Did not happen
Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive 21% Happened
More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion 37% Did not happen
More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion 25% Did not happen
More than $100 billion 12% Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

No aggregate forecast history is available for this question.